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added: Wed, 28th September 2005 | 517 views | 0x in favourites
feed url: http://www.zelosgroup.com/rss/directoryApplicationsRese...
Market for Directory Applications and the evolving identity management sector.
The combination of offline, online and phone-based search applications for databases and listings products is a $65 billion market today. New advances in search and related technologies are ramping up the volume, thus creating new forms of paid search. Rather than give up the battle in the face of Google, integrated service providers should capitalize on owning two of three converging accelerants – location sentience and full-featured handsets (FFH) – that when combined with search evolution create powerful new user experiences.
The industry's largest deployment of automated DA hits a major milestone in August with the turn-up of the New York market. The combination of Tellme, Volt Delta, and Verizon LiveSource agent assets will completely cover Verizon's footprint of 27 million wirelines households (except Hawaii) by October, representing a 15-month deployment.
After an on-again-off-again/on-again 18-month odyssey, VoltDelta and Nortel Networks now pool their Directory Assistance assets, including 160 Nortel employees and a book of business estimated at $40-50 million in revenue.
New BREW-based services aim to disintermediate the live agent 411 revenue-per-call model. Because they are available as downloads that carry per-month or per-day charges, they make the subscription model, which has been so elusive in the past, within reach on selected phones offered by selected carriers.
VoIP announcements from all of the major carriers have galvanized major Network Equipment Platform (NEPS) vendors, most recently Lucent, to meet rising demand. Bot hosted speech and VoIP involve migration from legacy hardware into a virtualized cloud, full of apps and service. Packaged app providers should see a major opportunity here.
The UK is the latest of three top European markets to open up its DA market, and the first targeted by INFONXX. One year after INFO's market entry, it's safe to call its 118 118 retail play, The Number, a resounding success. With 45-50% share of what is still a 200+ million pounds market, INFONXX has become the largest non-telco DA provider in the world.
After an ambitious run at the US DA market, Telcordia spin-out Telelogue has been acquired for its intellectual property assets, as well as a differentiated secondary market suite of hosting and turnkey offers for smaller telcos. Job #1 is porting it from Nuance to ScanSoft engines, while Job #2 may be getting legal papers served on infringers.
User-generated Network Address Books (NABs) are the foundation for a family of back-up services that create new revenue and retention opportunites for carriers. Two proprietary consumer surveys by Zelos Group reveal promising market segmentation, pricing and packaging strategies.
In the past year, the status of speech recognition for DA has been upgraded from “someday” to “real” in terms of contracts awarded. Recent awards in the fixed-line segment, in both Canada and the U.S., now account for 90 percent of the market, and winners and losers can be assessed.
The world got smaller for incumbent DA providers last week with the FCC granting clearing the path for BellSouth, SBC and Verizon to provide international DA. This provides needed competition to interexchange carrier offerings which were expensive and cumbersome operator-to-operator affairs in many cases.
The acquisition of Switchboard by Infospace should accelerate consolidation across multiple modalities of the Yellow and White Pages. Switchboard’s wholesale deal with AOL for online local complements InfoSpace’s deal with Verizon Information Services very nicely. InfoSpace’s move into White Pages ownership is interesting in the shadow of wireless listings becoming available. Competing firms will add automated speech and location based services (LBS) to the mix.
In January we mused over what $10 billion in cash would do for Google relative to the rest of the directory ecosystem. Three months later, Google Local shows us what online search can do to drive location-based rich search. As a free service, it is disruptive to alternative services that charge for listings or advertisement.
Verizon’s $3 billion investment in IP network technologies will make VoIP more prominent within the DA ecosystem, both here and in Europe. Stepped up VoIP activity by cable system operators (E.G. Comcast, Time Warner) and IP-based wholesales (E.G. Level 3), will make both 411 and 911 services part of the VoIP value chain.
Through its partnership with Yahoo, BT is adding a fourth dimension to its “Triple Play” services (voice, data and broadband) by adding personalization, real-time control of bandwidth consumption and content on demand to the services menu. The partnership shows how an integrated carrier will compete with the rapidly receding AOL for Broadband service.
Automated speech supports telephone company goals for greater differentiation, personalization and customer care. Zelos Group’s proprietary survey of speech implementations reflects geometric growth and accelerated deployment strategies both in the network and customer care centers.
In its 14th acquisition over the past several years, IBM plugs Product Information Management software play Trigo into its ever-expanding middleware stack. This new kind of PIM touches rich product and features data that can drive pervasive commerce.
Wholesale DA in the US in 2004 is being transformed by AT&T Wireless's transition from MetroOne to Verizon LiveSource and Tellme. The deal is a microcosm of the wholesale DA industry at large. Automation is gaining a stronger foothold in ever-shifting sands. Uncertainty creates opportunity for ASR vendors and database aggregators.
The U.K.'s experience with competitive DA has officially reached "debacle" status. The repercussions will be global in nature as DA providers in other markets calibrate efforts to market enhancements to gain market entry and acceptance. As callers opt out of dialup DA offerings, Web, wireless and IP-based providers should capture new customers.
What looked like a breakthrough deal for Tellme – hosting AT&T Wireless’ 411 traffic -- now looks imperiled by the prospect of Cingular pointing AWE’s 411 traffic to its own inhouse shop. This is testimony to the short-term nature of today's EDA contracts.
Content publishers have struggled to do business with Cingular and will bemoan its acquisition of AT&T Wireless. The deal represents a new opportunity for providers of managed CRM and interactive services infrastructure.
Zelos Group’s analyst team has tracked the Directory Assistance (DA) market since the early ‘90s, and defines the domestic market for outsourcing providers as wholesale services. Providers in this segment typically support multiple fixed-line and wireless carriers with services that are branded in the carrier’s name. Database management, agent positions, and access platforms are provided by the wholesale call center company under contract, and carriers bill at a retail rate.
The selection of W3 Data, operator of whitepages.com, by Microsoft as a .NET conformant source of listings data within Microsoft Office applications conforms to Zelos Group’s model for pervasive or Next Generation DA. From a user experience perspective, it embeds W3’s online white and Yellow Pages “inside” Microsoft Word and Outlook providing real-time, contextual access to online listings. No synching required.
Verizon's recent $3 billion VoIP initiative with Nortel Networks portends acceleration of efforts to packetize its core network. Verizon will accompany its investment with rollout of advanced call management features and new converged devices that will fuel two directory-related concepts: Network Address Book (NAB), and CNAM (Calling Party Name identification).
The popularization of automated speech takes place one application at a time. The speech-enabled auto-attendant will continue to be a key horizontal application that serves as the foundation for vertically-tailored service bundles. The other heavy-hitters for speech recognition are self-service contact centers, directory assistance and general purpose hosting facilities.
One of the things Google could do with $12 billion in IPO proceeds is severely disrupt the online and phone-based Directory Assistance business. Google is already a formidable player, with its PhoneBook search that includes both DA and reverse directory lookups.
In this report, Zelos Group looks at four major markets: North America, Western Europe, CALA (Central America/Latin America) and the Pacific Rim (primarily Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines). DA platforms in these areas, collectively, will field in excess of 24 billion calls and generate over $22 billion in retail revenues.
NARUC (National Association of Regulated Utility Commissions) makes a compelling case for competitive DA services and outlines several ways that it could become a reality. This aggregate of utility commissions in all 50 states includes rate regulation of 411-based DA services as one of its duties, and has submitted a resolution to the FCC calling for competition in the retail DA market.
The proliferation of pre-packaged (off-the-shelf) applications is taking place both vertically and horizontally. New products and channel relationships will shorten the time-to-deployment of increasingly common speech apps in defined industries and functional areas. Yet Zelos Group asserts that the border between an integrated development environment and a library of canned code with tools will always be muddy. Some customization will always be required.
Implementing an infrastructure for sharing common short codes (CSCs) in the U.S. is the first step in creating a new channel for telemedia services. Along with providing a new mechanism for direct response media, CSCs will threaten the primacy of 411 as a venue for enhanced directory applications.
Its agreement with Vodafone to devise implementations of Web services standards makes Microsoft a more credible contender to provide infrastructure for wireless applications. Microsoft competitors should embrace the initiative a positive step for the industry and use it as an opportunity to promote Web services strategies in the wireless sector.
Only 10 percent of wireless subscribers call DA “at least once a month.” Still, at an average of $1.45 per call - plus minutes of use - DA is one of the top revenue enhancers for wireless carriers. The Cellular Telephone and Internet Association (CTIA) must balance caller convenience against wireless subscribers' inherent concerns over privacy.
AT&T Wireless’ selection of Tellme/Volt/Verizon to replace live agent shop Metro One for outsourced directory assistance shifts the DA industry’s focus squarely to full-on automated speech. DA is characterized by high call volumes, transaction-based pricing and a proven business model. Zelos Group sees the move to 100% automation accelerating in 2003-2004.
Rather than view the proliferation of new mobile terminals as a threat, Directory Assistance/Enquiry (DA/DQ) operators should eye opportunities to host and update network address books.
Regulators in the United Kingdom (OFTEL) learned well from the eleven European countries that implemented competitive DA/DQ schemes. Conversion has gone smoothly. Zelos Group expects only three major providers (and an equal number of “niche” players) to survive in a competitive environment.
This Roadmap Report details the market forces, drivers and inhibitors behind the growth in both call volumes in revenues, culminating in definitive regional forecasts based on projections for 212 countries worldwide. The conclusions paint a future broadly influenced by technological advances, growth in wireless subscriber base and fundamental changes in caller behavior.
TeleCommunications Systems, Inc. (TCS) Xypages adds ROI on the FCC-mandated investment. However, carriers still have to overcome concerns over privacy and the clumsiness of five-digit shortcodes for SMS-based queries, and TCS must secure carrier agreement regarding allocation of shared short codes.
Within eighteen months, more than 25 percent of households in the U.S. will use the National Do-Not-Call (DNC) List to opt-out of receiving unwanted telemarketing calls. The $20+ billion in losses to teleservicing companies should be a boon to enhanced Directory Assistance/Directory Enquiry (DA/DQ), as households lose incentives for unlisted numbers.
The courts have ruled out “permanent forbearance” of portability for wireless numbers. It's time for carriers to respond with creative pricing and service bundles that apply to wireless, fixed line and IP telephony. Such access will be the foundation for truly pervasive services.
MetroOne has introduced a national dial-around DA/DQ service called Infone™. Having lost major clients Cingular and Sprint, MetroOne's high profile move from wholesale to retail may be a “bet-the-company” tactic. Low price, coupled with high-service and promotional costs make this a very high-risk venture.
When Britain formally moves to competitive Directory Assistance/Enquiry in August, it will set the stage for a global redefinition of DA/DQ. Instead of greater reliance on technology to save costs, competitors will focus on improving the performance of their live agents.
Through its TXT-411 AT&T Wireless is making DA/DQ services a center-piece of its mLife interactive services package. TXT-411 will not cannibalize DA/DQ revenues but will provide another reason for subscribers to become familiar with text-messaging and will be extended to provide an array of additional value added service features.
An inclusive approach to Directory Assistance/Enquiry (DA/DQ) will foster $3 billion in additional annual revenue in 2007 to carriers or third-party service providers. The percentage of unlisted wireless numbers range from a low of around 2 percent in Denmark and Finland to a high of 99 percent in several countries around the world.
It will take at least two years for the real value of VeriSign's new Calling Name (CNAM) service for wireless carriers to be realized. Although incomplete, this new offering will serve as the foundation for more premium services from wireless carriers and ultimately, it will provide the technical underpinnings for permissions-based, inbound call handling.
Following a series of business losses, Metro One announced earlier this month that it had signed a significant multi-year contract to provide its Enhanced Directory Assistance for the U.S. market to a group of offshore telcos. The services will be delivered via an undisclosed "third-party provider of international operator services and other telecom service products."
This week, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC)opened the official period for public comment on a petition AT&T filed on October 18. The petition requests a declaratory ruling that AT&T's phone-to-phone IP telephony services are exempt from access charges.
As Zelos Group has discussed in great detail over the last few years, the directory assistance, directory enquiry/inquiry (DA/DQ) industry is rapidly evolving worldwide. At the epicenter of this transformation are the wholesale DA/DQ providers, which have been both recipients and drivers of change in many markets.
Zelos Group's annual Global Directories & Databases Conference (GDD2002) held earlier this month in Alexandria, Virginia, brought a unique mix of international players together to discuss the key issues facing the directory assistance, directory enquiry/inquiry (DA/DQ) industry. This venue provided for rich discussions, both formal and informal, about these concerns and opportunities, and how to best address them.
At its national conference in San Francisco this week, the Direct Marketing Association (DMA) announced that it will now offer a list of 280 million existing and prospective U.S. telephone numbers that have been designated for wireless service.
Since 1997, nine European countries have introduced new regulations aimed at creating a fully competitive directory assistance, directory enquiry/inquiry (DA/DQ) market. Seven countries have already implemented them and two more are in the process of doing so this year.
Go Daddy Software Inc. announced the introduction of Domains By Proxy Inc., a service that will allow individuals to shield their personal contact information from the "WhoIs" database. ICANN requires registrars to maintain a publicly accessible "WhoIs" database that displays the contact information for all domain names registered.
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