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Telecoms market research
This Microsoft Excel data file provides forecasts of US business managed services spending for the 2007-2012 period with detailed segmentation by product category and size of business.
Detail is included for the following product categories within wireline data services:
-Web and application hosting services
-Managed infrastructure services
-Managed network services
Each of these product category forecasts are broken into the following segments and sub-segments:
-SOHO business (1 to 4 employee firms and self-employed)
-Small business (5 to 9 employees, 10 to 19 employees, 20 to 49 employees, and 50 to 99 employees)
-Mid-sized business (100 to 249 employees, 250 to 499 employees, and 500 to 999 employees)
-Enterprise (1,000 to 4,999 employees, 5,000 to 9,999 employees, and 10,000 or more employees)
Nokia announced that it would buy-out its partners in the Symbian OS venture. Simultaneously, the owners of the intellectual property surrounding Symbian announced the Symbian Foundation to offer cellphone manufacturers licenses for the Symbian OS at no charge.
This is a strategic move to shore up the Symbian third-party application development ecosystem in the face of new challenges from Google's Android, Apple's iPhone, and increasing consumer interest in BlackBerry devices from Research in Motion. This report looks at the underlying logic of this effort and the implications of the Symbian Foundation business plan.
Cellular subscriptions (contracts, not individuals) continue to grow at a fast rate, but that rate is beginning to slow worldwide. Still some regions and countries are bucking the trend. In addition to subscription growth, the mix of technologies used in each region is rapidly changing. For example, in Western Europe, the number of new subscribers using WCDMA and HSPA technology is quite impressive.
Subscriptions are being fueled by incredible growth in India, China, and Africa, but the growth in developed countries is definitely leveling out. When the world is viewed as a whole, the growth in developing areas is what stands out as driving the worldwide total. When all is taken together, the number of subscriptions in 2007 grew by 667.6 million over 2006, but 2008 is forecast to only grow by 382.5 million over 2007. Some of the slowing is caused by saturation in some areas, but another aspect is the relatively sluggish world economy. By 2012, the yearly growth in subscribers is expected to decrease to only 163 million per year, roughly twice the population increase projected in that year.
This report contains cellular subscription numbers by region and technology for 2006 and 2007, and contains forecast information through 2012.
The migration of small, medium, and branch offices to IP communication has created a market for devices that serve multiple functions. The availability of third-party application software, off-shore manufacturing, and system-on-chip technology has driven the convergence of the router, Ethernet switch, firewall security, VPN, and VoIP gateway market segments, forming a new product segment that we named in 2004, the multi-service business gateway (MSBG).
This report traces the development of the MSBG over the past three years. The report identifies major technology trends and equipment suppliers. The MSBG market is analyzed by examining primary applications, such as network connectivity and IP voice communication.
The findings from a primary research survey of US businesses operating SMB or branch offices are presented. The survey focuses on identifying business attitudes toward the use of MSBG devices, as well as assessing future buying behavior.
Demand for SaaS business applications in the US business market is growing at a steady pace—across all sizes of business and vertical markets. In its March 2008 SaaS survey, we asked 800 US-based decision-makers about their usage of six specific business function-related applications delivered in the hosted model: CRM, ERP, SCM, HR, Salesforce automation, and Web collaboration applications.
We also questioned respondents about their use of Microsoft Office-esque productivity applications (word processing, spreadsheet, and presentation applications) delivered as a service specifically to gauge the impact that hosted productivity applications might have on Microsoft’s dominant position in this space.
This report is broken out into two sections: the first focuses on demand for hosted business function-related applications, and the second focuses on demand for hosted productivity applications. Covered are the crucial reasons why businesses are, or are not, interested in these applications, as well as who they turn to as providers.
Survey data in this report is broken out into three segments: small, medium, and large business. Data is further broken out by sub-segments within these segments. Data in these sub-segment breakouts is compared to results from respondents across the entire US market.
A forecast of total US business application hosting revenues through 2012 is also included.
In 1Q08, worldwide Wi-Fi revenue increased by 4% year-over-year (YoY), from slightly under $1.13 billion in 1Q07 to $1.176 billion. Total unit shipments increased by 8%, approximately 1.37 million units, from 1Q07 to 1Q08.
Shipments of Draft-N products continued to grow with access point (AP) unit shipments increasing 30% QoQ, and Draft-N network interface cards (NIC) showing the only positive growth in the NIC category. Overall Enterprise showed another slow quarter with shipments decreasing for the second straight quarter during 1Q08.
This report examines the WLAN market for 1Q08. Market shares for enterprise and SOHO/consumer vendors are provided, based on unit shipments and manufacturers' revenue for the quarter. The data is segmented by air standard and equipment form factor.
This report examines the Ethernet switch market for 1Q08. Market shares for a wide range of Ethernet switch vendors are provided, based both on port shipments and manufacturer’s revenue for the quarter. In addition, port shipments and manufacturer’s revenue are reported for the five quarters subsequent to 1Q08. The data is highly segmented, both by OSI Layer (L2, L3, and L4-7) and equipment configuration (Fixed vs. Modular), as well as by speed (Fast Ethernet, Gigabit Ethernet, 10 Gigabit Ethernet). Cross segmentation is also provided for greater granularity (for example: L2 Fixed Fast Ethernet).
The market for PC-TV Tuners is quickly moving from analog to digital, driven by the increased pace of the broadcast television analog-to-digital switchover. In 2005, 60.1% of PC-TV Tuners shipped were analog, but the analog tuner market share dropped to 48.3% in 2006, and then to 39.7% in 2007.
During this same three year time period, digital broadcast television coverage spread rapidly in Western Europe and in the key Asian markets of Korea and Japan. These are markets with a strong tradition of watching over-the-air television programming rather than the premium services offered by Cable and Satellite television services.
The adoption of digital PC-TV Tuners will accelerate in Europe as Digital Terrestrial TV (DTT) services continue to expand. In Asia, China and India will present strong growth opportunities. North America is expected to see a surge during 2009, when analog TV is cut off, and new Mobile Digital Terrestrial TV (MDTV) services are introduced by major US TV stations.
PC-TV Tuners face challenges from a variety of other options that consumers have for obtaining video on their PCs, including easy-to-use Cable, TelcoTV, and satellite TV services, Internet distributed video content, IPTV services, and mobile broadband, such as 3G, Wi-Fi, and WiMAX.
Our updated research indicates that by 2012 there will be 30.8 million PC-TV Tuners sold annually, with a total retail value of US$1.7 billion.
In 1Q08, 34.3 million broadband CPE units shipped, an increase of 1% year over year. Revenue decreased 2%, down from $1.9 billion in 1Q07 to $1.8 billion in 1Q08.
This report examines the broadband CPE market for 1Q08. Market shares for broadband CPE vendors are provided, based both on unit shipments and manufacturer's revenue for the quarter. The broadband CPE market measurable components include cable modems, DSL modems, broadband routers, and residential gateways.
Likely due to poor economic conditions, cellular deployments slowed considerably for 1Q08, despite consistent quarterly growth over the past few years. During 1Q08, there were four cellular deployments, half EV-DO and the other HSPA. On the other hand, there were 12 deployments of Mobile WiMAX in 1Q08, which were evenly scattered across the globe.
We expect 3G-4G subscriptions will grow in a very healthy manner throughout the forecast period. Over the course of 2007, 3G-4G subscriptions grew 94%. We expect an increase of 47.5% in subscriptions during 2008, bringing 3G-4G subscriptions to over 400 million worldwide. By the end of 2012, We expect 3G-4G subscriptions to rise to 1.4 billion. We define WCDMA/HSPA, EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, Mobile WiMAX, and LTE as 3G-4G technologies.
Fixed mobile convergence (FMC) covers a wide array of solutions that merge the capabilities of mobile and fixed voice networks and devices. While transparent hand-off of active voice calls between cellular and Wi-Fi networks with the use of a dual-mode phone is the generally accepted definition of FMC, simultaneous ringing of cellular and wireline phones, network twinning and mobile PBX extensions and applications are among the growing number of solutions in the FMC family. This analysis discusses current and planned adoption of various FMC solutions and discusses how industry market leaders will not be dissuaded by lagging felt need for FMC solutions on the part of the business community, and will aim to develop compelling solutions that, once experienced, will lead to viral adoption over the next several years. A forecast of cellular/Wi-Fi dual-mode telephone shipments and business subscribers is provided.
Shipments of personal navigation devices (PNDs) will continue to grow over the next five years. Key drivers for PND market growth include falling price points, increased worldwide consumer demand, and enhanced functionality in new PND models.
Still, the PND market faces strong competition from both handset navigation and embedded automotive navigation systems. In particular, vendors in handset navigation are starting to offer a number of value-add services, such as pedestrian navigation, offline navigation, and searches for local points of interest.
In-Stat's latest industry update offers a revised PND forecast that takes into account market developments that occurred in the second half of 2007 and the first half of 2008. It also provides a regional breakout for PND shipments. Competitive threats such as in-car navigation and GPS-enabled handsets are discussed. For more detailed information about PND manufacturers, component suppliers, and products, look for In-Stat’s full-length PND and location-based services report, due to be published in the fall of 2008.
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of SOHO business (self-employed and firms with 4 or fewer employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for these five broad categories:
-Wireline Voice Services
-Wireless Voice Services
-Wireline Data Services
-Wireless Data Services
-Wireless Handsets
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of small business (firms with 5 to 99 employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for these five broad categories:
-Wireline Voice Services
-Wireless Voice Services
-Wireline Data Services
-Wireless Data Services
-Wireless Handsets
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of mid-sized business (firms with 100 to 999 employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for these five broad categories:
-Wireline Voice Services
-Wireless Voice Services
-Wireline Data Services
-Wireless Data Services
-Wireless Handsets
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of enterprise (firms with 1,000+ employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for these five broad categories:
-Wireline Voice Services
-Wireless Voice Services
-Wireline Data Services
-Wireless Data Services
-Wireless Handsets
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
This Microsoft Excel data file provides forecasts of US business wireline voice services spending for the 2007-2012 period with detailed segmentation by product category and size of business.
Detail is included for the following product categories within wireline data services:
-Local
-Domestic long distance
-International long distance
-Toll-free services
-Other wireline services (including audio conferencing)
-Hosted VoIP
-Broadband IP telephony
Each of these product category forecasts are broken into the following segments and sub-segments:
-SOHO business (1 to 4 employee firms and self-employed)
-Small business (5 to 9 employees, 10 to 19 employees, 20 to 49 employees, and 50 to 99 employees)
-Mid-sized business (100 to 249 employees, 250 to 499 employees, and 500 to 999 employees)
-Enterprise (1,000 to 4,999 employees, 5,000 to 9,999 employees, and 10,000 or more employees)
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of US business telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
-SOHO businesses (1 to 4 employees)
-Small businesses (5 to 99 employees)
-Mid-sized businesses (100 to 999 employees)
-Enterprise (1,000+ employees)
These forecasts are segmented across nine vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
The development of TD-SCDMA will remain in its infancy throughout 2008, with the total number of subscribers reaching 600,000. In 2009, following a possible network expansion to tier-two and tier-three cities, the number of TD-SCDMA subscribers will explode to 4.3 million and in 2010 to 15.7 million. By then, China Mobile will be focusing on HSDPA/EDGE instead of just on TD/GSM dual-mode. The capex on TD-SCDMA is estimated to peak at US$5.3 billion by late 2008 or the beginning of 2009.
We believe that the market will move in TD-SCDMA's favor in 2009, and that 2009 will be the turning point for TD-SCDMA's growth rate, which will reach 617%. However, the number of subscribers will not pass 10 million until 2010.
SaaS (Software as a Service) is creating a lot of hype in the market place as an alternative to traditional, installed licenses for business management applications. In its March 2008 SaaS survey, we asked US-based survey respondents about their usage of six specific business function-related applications delivered in the SaaS model: CRM, ERP, SCM, HR, Salesforce automation, and Web collaboration applications.
We also questioned respondents about their use of Microsoft Office-esque productivity applications (word processing, spreadsheet, and presentation applications) delivered as a service specifically to gauge the impact that SaaS productivity applications might have on Microsoft's dominant position in this space.
This report is broken out into two sections; the first focuses on demand for business function-related SaaS applications, the second focuses on demand for SaaS productivity applications. Covered are the crucial reasons why businesses are or are not interested in these applications, as well as who they turn to as providers.
Survey data showing SaaS adoption drivers and inhibitors is segmented into four vertical markets:
-Education
-Government
-Healthcare
-Professional Services
Survey data from these four vertical markets is presented and compared to results from respondents across the entire US market.
A forecast of total US business application hosting revenues through 2012 is also included.
The worldwide broadband CPE market progressed at a slower pace in 2007, rising by 14% in 2007 to 140 million unit shipments. Contributing factors toward slower CPE growth include replacing two units (broadband modem and router) with one unit (residential gateway), and slowing worldwide cable and DSL subscriber growth.
This report examines the broadband CPE annual market shares for 2007 vs. 2006, based on unit shipments. The broadband CPE pie represented in this report includes cable modems, DSL modems, residential gateways, and broadband routers. Home Wi-Fi aggregator market shares are also included, and overlap broadband routers and gateways.
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of SOHO business (self-employed and firms with 4 or fewer employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
- Self-employed
- 1 to 4 employee firms
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
- Utilities
- Manufacturing
- Retail Trade
- Transportation
- Information
- Finance and Insurance
- Professional Services
- Healthcare
- Government
- Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of small business (firms with 5 to 99 employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
- 5 to 9 employees
- 10 to 19 employees
- 20 to 49 employees
- 50 to 99 employees
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
- Utilities
- Manufacturing
- Retail Trade
- Transportation
- Information
- Finance and Insurance
- Professional Services
- Healthcare
- Government
- Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of mid-sized business (firms with 100 to 999 employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
- 100 to 249 employees
- 250 to 499 employees
- 500 to 999 employees
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
- Utilities
- Manufacturing
- Retail Trade
- Transportation
- Information
- Finance and Insurance
- Professional Services
- Healthcare
- Government
- Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of enterprise (firms with 1,000+ employees) telecom spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
- 1,000-4,999 employees
- 5,000-9,999 employees
- 10,000+ employees
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
- Utilities
- Manufacturing
- Retail Trade
- Transportation
- Information
- Finance and Insurance
- Professional Services
- Healthcare
- Government
- Other
Cellular infrastructure contract awards in the first quarter of 2008 were very strong overall—in fact the strongest they have been in a first quarter for 7 years. As for manufacturers, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia-Siemens, and Ericsson all had a good first quarter, while some of the other manufacturers floundered. This report contains a summation of all reported cellular infrastructure contract awards for 1Q08. Awards are listed by manufacturer, country, technology, and award amount. In addition, a summary of award totals for the last seven years are included. Companies that are mentioned in this report include Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Huawei, Motorola, Nokia-Siemens, and ZTE.
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of SOHO business (self-employed and firms with 4 or fewer employees) wireline voice services spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
-Self-employed
-1 to 4 employee firms
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of mid-sized business (firms with 100 to 999 employees) wireline voice services spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
-100 to 249 employees
-250 to 499 employees
-500 to 999 employees
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of enterprise (firms with 1,000+ employees) wireline voice services spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
-1,000 to 4,999 employees
-5,000 to 9,999 employees
-10,000+ employees
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of small business (firms with 5 to 99 employees) wireline voice services spending for the 2007-2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
-5 to 9 employees
-10 to 19 employees
-20 to 49 employees
-50 to 99 employees
These forecasts are segmented across ten vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
Western Europe Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the Western Europe market. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Western Europe Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments into Western Europe are expected to rise only modestly from 177 million units in 2008 to 183 million units in 2011.
- In Western Europe, we are not expecting a major shift into converged mobile device sales. We expect that shipments of converged mobile devices in this region will increase only modestly from 17.7 million units in 2008 to 27.5 million in 2011.
- 30% of the 183 million units shipped in Western Europe in 2011 are expected to be 3G handsets.
- Nokia continues to be the leader in this regional handset market. Nokia’s market share in 2006 was 36.5% compared to 17.2% for Motorola, 16.8% for Samsung, 12.1% for Sony-Ericsson, and 4.1% for LG.
Asia Pacific Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the Asia Pacific market. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Asia Pacific Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments into Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) are expected to rise from 485 million units in 2008 to 684 million units in 2011.
- In the Asia Pacific region, we are expecting major growth in converged mobile device sales. We expect that shipments of converged mobile devices in this region will more than double from 49 million in 2008 to 109 million in 2011, making this region a key battleground for vendors looking to take market share.
- 70% of the 684 million units shipped in 2011 are expected to be 2.5G handsets. We expect shipments of 2.5G handsets to increase from 359 million in 2008 to 479 million in 2011.
- Nokia and Samsung will grow in the Asia Pacific Region while Motorola will continue to suffer. Our model estimates that Nokia continues to be the leader in this regional handset market with a 40% market share. Samsung has shown growth thanks to its strength in 3G handsets, particularly in South Korea and other East Asian markets.
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Canada Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the Canada market. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Canada Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments into Canada are expected to rise from 8.8 million units in 2008 to 10.9 million units in 2011.
- We expect that 2G handset sales in the Canadian market will disappear in 2009. On the other hand, 3G handset shipments are increasing steadily. Our model is forecasting that for the 2008 - 2011 period, we expect 3G handset shipment to more than double from 1.2 million to 2.5 million units. We note that the proportion of 3G handset shipments into the Canadian market is still lower than in other developed regions such as the United States and Western Europe. This is primarily due to the high data charges of Canadian wireless operators.
- Nokia, the leader in the global handset market, lags behind Motorola and Samsung in the Canadian handset market. Market shares (by shipments) of Motorola and Samsung were 27.7% and 22%, respectively, in 2006.
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
CEMA Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the CEMA market. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 CEMA Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments into CEMA markets are expected to rise from 240 million units in 2008 to 303 million units in 2011.
- In CEMA markets, we expect that shipments of converged mobile devices will almost double from 21.6 million in 2008 to 42.4 million in 2011.
- Our model is forecasting that 3G handset shipment in CEMA markets will increase dramatically while 2G Handset shipments fall. We expect 2G handset shipments to reach their maximum in 2008 at 57.7 million units and then start falling as more consumers switch to 3G handsets. For 3G handsets, our model is forecasting 3G handset shipment to increase by 129.4% from 26.4 million to 60.6 million.
- In CEMA emerging markets, Nokia continues its domination. Nokia’s market share in 2006 was 51.8% in CEMA.
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Japan Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the Japan market.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Japan Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments in Japan are expected to rise only modestly from 52.5 million units in 2008 to 55.5 million units in 2011.
- In Japan, converged mobile devices account for over one-half of all handsets sold (compared to the worldwide average of 16% only). We expect this trend to continue during the forecast period with 27.8 million converged mobile devices shipped in the Japanese market by 2011.
- In Japan, a shift from 2G to 3G occurred much earlier than in other parts of the world. Over the forecast period of 2008 - 2011, we expect 3G handset shipment in Japan to increase from 45.1 million to 49.4 million, accounting for 89% of all handsets sold in the Japanese market.
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Latin America Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the Latin America market. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Latin America Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments into Latin America are expected to rise from 135 million units in 2008 to 152 million units in 2011.
- In Latin America, the proportion of converged mobile devices in total handset shipments is much lower than the world average. We expect this proportion in Latin America to be only 3% in 2011, in comparison to the world average of 16% in 2011.
- 3G handset shipments are increasing steadily in Latin America. Over the forecast period of 2008 - 2011, we expect 3G handset shipment to more than triple from 6.7 million to 21.3 million. We forecast that, by 2011, 3G handsets will account for 14% of total handset shipments in this region, compared to only 5% in 2008.
- Nokia and Motorola are leaders in Latin America. Nokia continues to be the leader in this regional handset market. In 2006, we estimate that Nokia shipped 38.6 million handsets; this implies a market share of 32.3%. Motorola’s market share in Latin America was 28.4% in 2006.
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
United States Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the United States market. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 United States Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments into the United States are expected to rise from 183 million units in 2008 to 202 million in 2011. The biggest story as far as unit shipments are concerned is that we are expecting that shipments of converged mobile devices in the United States will increase from 25.6 million in 2008 to 44.4 million in 2011, an increase of 74% over the forecast period.
- We expect 33% of the 202 million shipments that will take place in 2011 to be 3G handsets.
- While Motorola continues to have the largest market share in the United States, we think that Motorola’s handset pipeline is weak. Over 2006 - 07, LG performed quite well in the United States 3G handset market. While LG’s overall market share by shipments was 15% in 2006 in the United States, its 3G handset market share was was 34.2% (8.5 million 3G handsets). We expect both LG and Samsung to make in-roads into Motorola’s territory in the U.S. market.
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Global Handset Vendor and Technology Forecasts provides historical and forecasted (2003 - 2011) information on global handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Global Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast include:
- Unit shipments globally are expected to rise from 1.14 billion in 2007 to 1.59 billion in 2011. The biggest story as far as unit shipments are concerned is that we are expecting that shipments of converged mobile devices in the world will increase from 142 million in 2008 to 258 million in 2011, making up 16.2% of the global handset market.
- We expect 67% of the 1.59 billion shipments that will take place in 2011 to be 2.5G handsets. Our model is forecasting that shipments of 2.5G handsets will increase from 900 million in 2008 to 1.06 billion in 2011
- 3G handset shipments are also increasing steadily. Over the forecast period of 2008 - 2011, we expect 3G handset shipment to increase by 75.6% from 200 million to 351 million.
- NOKIA continues to perform well in the global 3G handset market. Nokia’s 3G handsets accounted for 25.2% of all 3G handsets sold in the world in December 2006. The Top 5 vendors - Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and LG - continue to gain market shares from other vendors in the global 3G handset market, primarily because Japanese vendors have not been able to make much inroads into the 3G space in international markets.
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Global Handset Forecast provides historical (2003 - 2007) and forecasted (2008 - 2009) information on handset revenues, market share, unit shipments, Average Selling Prices (ASPs), and operating margins at the Top-5 vendors. Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Global Handset Forecast include:
- Unit shipments globally are expected to rise from 1.14 billion in 2007 to 1.41 billion in 2009. The biggest story as far as unit shipments are concerned is that, we think that Motorola will recover only slightly from the disastrous 2007 to reach 200 million units in 2009. This is still below Motorola’s 2006 shipment figures.
- We expect biggest shipment increases to happen at Asian vendors. We are expecting Samsung to show a 34.7% increase over the 2008 - 2009 period while LG is forecasted to show a 38.8% increase in unit shipments over the forecasted period. Both LG and Samsung are increasingly leveraging existing electronics channels to sell through their mobile handsets in emerging markets.
- By historical standards, ASPs at the Top-5 Vendors will be declining at a fairly modest pace. Compared to the approximately -10% declines in ASPs experienced in 2004, we think that overall pricing trends among the Top-5 are firming up due to the higher preponderance of 3G and converged devices.
- NOKIA’s Channels and product offering will continue to drive profits and margins despite lower ASPs compared to other Top-5 vendors. Nokia has a higher operating profit than all of the other Top-5 vendors put together. We expect operating profits at Nokia to increase by 19.1% over the next two years as recent changes announced take effect. We expect Nokia to increase its operating profits from the current $10.6 billion to $12.6 billion in 2009
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, over
Volume 2 of the "Yearbook of World Electronics Data" presents a review of the electronics industry in the Americas, Japan, and Asia/Pacific with detailed estimates and forecasts of the size of the production (2005-2008) and markets (2005-2011) for electronic equipment and components for 16 countries. Software and services are not included in the "Yearbook" series.
Section 2 covers summary data with an economic overview, electronics market overview, and quick-reference summary tables with Import-Export data, production and market totals for the major electronics sectors and products in US dollars.
Section 3 presents detailed country data for each of 16 countries:
Volume 2: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, USA - including subsets for computing, communications, consumer, industrial and components markets and production.
Volume 1 of the "Yearbook of World Electronics Data" presents a review of the electronics industry in West Europe with detailed estimates and forecasts of the size of the production (2005-2008) and markets (2005-2011) for electronic equipment and components for 16 countries. Software and services are not included in the "Yearbook" series.
Section 2 covers summary data with an economic overview, electronics market overview, and quick-reference summary tables with Import-Export data, production and market totals for the major electronics sectors and products in US dollars.
Section 3 presents detailed country data for each of 16 countries:
Volume 1: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom — including subsets for computing, communications, consumer, industrial and components markets and production.
This Microsoft Excel data file includes detailed forecasts of US business wireless handsets spending for the 2007–2012 period.
This data file provides detail for the size-of-business sub-segments in this market:
-SOHO businesses (1 to 4 employees)
-Small businesses (5 to 99 employees)
-Mid-sized businesses (100 to 999 employees)
-Enterprise (1,000+ employees)
These forecasts are segmented across nine vertical industry segments:
-Utilities
-Manufacturing
-Retail Trade
-Transportation
-Information
-Finance and Insurance
-Professional Services
-Healthcare
-Government
-Other
With 2008 looking to be a year of contradiction, ultra mobile devices are forecast to grow nicely, but critical market inflection points aligning usage, technology, and business models have yet to be achieved. Desktop PC growth is expected to remain steady but the growth drivers for PCs, in general, are anticipated to transition to notebooks. This report helps companies look at the 2008 forecast for UMDs and PCs and understand the significant factors affecting product strategies and market growth.
Highlights from this report include:
-UMDs growth to be 72.6% in 2008, if hitting on all cylinders.
-Continued concern over infrastructure, business models, form factors, and user interfaces are affecting the user experience.
-Non-computer makers are making plays by entering the mobile Internet space. They even label their products UMDs.
-Notebook PCs are the new major growth engine in PCs. Growth of 15.4% anticipated in 2008.
-Desktop PC growth will be flat, at 0.1% growth, in 2008 but a steady contributor at 6.8% growth in 2010.
-Slowdown in the marketplace will delay the notebook/desktop crossover, with 2009–2010 now anticipated for notebook volumes to exceed desktop volumes.
This In-Dustry Update defines social networking, discusses the migration of social networks to mobile technology, and examines the heaviest base of mobile networking—the millennial generation. The millennial generation refers to people born between 1981 and 2000.
This report provides a historical overview of social networking, discusses the migration to mobile devices, distinguishes between several different types of mobile social networks, and provides a forecast of all US mobile social networking subscribers through 2012.
In addition, we examine the technologies behind mobile social networking and include the results of an survey about mobile data usage.
The new Sprint Clearwire announcement to combine WiMAX operations appears to have increased the chances of WiMAX's success in the US. However, it might also signal the beginning of the end for Sprint.
DisplayPort is a next-generation digital interface for PCs and LCD monitors. It was designed as an immediate replacement for DVI, and a long-term replacement for VGA. DisplayPort ports will be found in PCs and LCD monitors in 2008. In addition to the ability to connect devices, DisplayPort also acts as an internal interface replacement for low voltage differential signaling (LVDS) in PCs and monitors. This allows for the development of direct drive monitors, which will lower bill-of-materials costs in monitors.
The forecast for DisplayPort in consumer electronics is less clear. Although DisplayPort is expected to have some success as an internal interconnect in digital televisions (DTV), this will not necessarily translate to DisplayPort ports on DTVs.
This report tracks the global market for DisplayPort-enabled devices, defined as devices with DisplayPort ports, in eleven different applications within three product segments: PCs, PC peripherals, and consumer electronics. Annual penetration of DisplayPort in each of the eleven markets is tracked through 2012. A DisplayPort transmitter and receiver chip ASP forecast through 2012 is also provided. Brief profiles of DisplayPort semiconductor vendors are also included.
Legacy services (i.e. frame relay, leased line, and ATM) continue to provide the professional services, finance and insurance, government, and healthcare vertical segments with a reliable communications infrastructure, but these verticals are under increasing pressure to provide connectivity to the corporate network on an "any where and any time" basis. In this changing environment, configurations are moving toward "multi-point" type implementations, which support converged architectures.
Legacy services struggle to keep up with this changing environment. In contrast, Internet access and NGN services, which for purposes of this report are defined as IP/MPLS and Ethernet VPN services, are well suited. As such, data services being used by these vertical sectors are going through a transition.
For these four key vertical market sectors, this report outlines the transition taking place from legacy services to Internet access and NGN services. Drawing extensively from our 2008 NGN Services survey, this report provides valuable insight into the migration taking place from the "buy-side" perspective, including:
-Business drivers that are currently influencing service purchasing decisions
-Deterrents that inhibit migration
-Estimates of legacy service site migration activity over the next year
-Adoption of converged implementations
-How the use of QoS is being adopted
-WAN services these verticals will add/expand over the next year
This Microsoft Excel data file provides forecasts of US business mobile spending for the 2007–2012 period with detailed segmentation by product category and size of business.
Detail is included for the following product categories within mobile spending:
-Wireless voice services
-Wireless data services
-Wireless handsets
Each of these product category forecasts are broken into the following segments and sub-segments:
-SOHO business (1 to 4 employee firms and self-employed)
-Small business (5 to 9 employees, 10 to 19 employees, 20 to 49 employees, and 50 to 99 employees)
-Mid-sized business (100 to 249 employees, 250 to 499 employees, and 500 to 999 employees)
-Enterprise (1,000 to 4,999 employees, 5,000 to 9,999 employees, and 10,000 or more employees)
The universal serial bus (USB) saw continued worldwide success in 2007, with more than 2.6 billion devices shipping in the PC, PC peripheral, consumer electronics (CE), communications, and automotive segments. USB's star is expected to maintain its rise, with close to four billion devices expected to ship in 2012.
2008 is expected to be a pivotal marker of USB’s achievements as well, as the number of high-speed USB-enabled device shipments will surpass those of low- and full-speed devices. The CE segment has been a strong driver of this success, with continued adoption of USB in digital cameras, portable digital media players, and digital televisions.
The major buzz in the USB ecosystem is the impending arrival of the SuperSpeed USB specification. The USB 3.0 version of the specification, when implemented, is anticipated to deliver actual speeds of approximately 3Gbps, a rate significantly higher than that of high-speed USB. This speed is expected to be harnessed primarily by data- and media-intensive peripherals and consumer electronics, such as external hard-disk drives, portable digital media players, and digital cameras, as well as the PCs that these devices connect to. Products incorporating SuperSpeed USB are expected to arrive on the market in late 2009, and shipments of SuperSpeed USB-enabled products are expected to multiply twenty-fold by 2012.
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